Closing the gap between Jones and Cormier

Daniel Cormier burst onto the scene in the Heavyweight division by defeating all-time greats like Roy Nelson, Frank Mir and Antonio Silva. His fellow AKA (American Kickboxing Academy) teammate, Cain Velasquez, held the UFC’s Heavyweight title, and there began the quest for Light Heavyweight gold.

Cormier’s run to the title bout was quick, and as a former Olympic wrestler, he posed some interesting challenges to the Champion, Jon Jones.

The big question leading up to UFC 182 was whether or not Daniel Cormier can close the distance and employ his game plan. After a handful of vicious elbows and knees during the first few rounds, the question promptly changed to whether or not Cormier should close the gap.

As the fight continued, “Break Bones” fans started to wilt. Cormier was getting dominated in his strongest areas, such as wrestling and in-fighting. With feud fueling the buzz, many haven’t stopped to think about what really went wrong the first time.

Lets analyze their past fight to see how their style clashed.

Stylistically Jon Jones is an out-fighter.

He is most comfortable at range where he can utilize his whopping 12 inch reach advantage over Cormier.

As an out-fighter, Jones prefers a large gap between him and Cormier. From that range, he targets up and down the body in an unpredictable manner with kicks. His side kicks and infamous oblique kicks stunt his opponent’s forward movement, maintain his preferred striking distance and of course, do some serious damage.

Out-fighting is not as simple as always maintaining a gap but necessitates closing the distance on your terms. Jones’ mindset is that, in order to be safe you have to be all the way in or all the way out. The greatness of Jones is how he masterfully he can set the distance to being on the outside or in the clinch, and how great he is on the outside and in the clinch.

Here you see, Jones stop his frequent circling to throw and breach the gap. He than closes his guard and initiates a clinch if his opponent is still coming forward.

These specific exchanges sum up his series of attack depending on range. High kick (far). Oblique kick (DC coming closer). Straight left (DC close)

Once too close, Jones clinches and ties up Cormier’s hands to avoid getting hit..

From the clinch Jones is great at landing hard elbows

Jones dictated the range almost every second of the fight. Jones can masterfully escape by closing the gap, turning the corner and than reestablishing the gap. 

What options are left for Cormier?

Well how did Cain Velasquez, Cormier’s stylistically identical teammate and former UFC Heavyweight Champion, dismantle the savvy striker, Junior dos Santos?

Great Head Movement = Allows for defense while being the aggressor

Good Counters = Allows for offense when out-fighter decides to engage.

Unrelenting Pressure = Forces out-fighter to box or constantly circle away.

Similar to lifting something with a pulley, releasing pressure on Jones will immediately undo Cormier’s hard work. Every second that Cormier isn’t actively taking an angle, feinting or striking, he is losing ground both literally and figuratively.

Cormier will have to get inside his boxing distance and really push the pace,

and punish Jones when he closes the distance and tries to clinch for safety. 

Cormier cannot allow Jones to dictate when and where the two will exchange. He must fight Jones’ lead hand or go around it. Jones uses his lead hand to measure and sometimes illegally deter opponents from attacking.

This slip/counter by Cormier is exactly what he’ll need in the rematch, but sadly was a rare occurrence in their first fight. The slip to the side allows Cormier to push forward while defending and return a punch of his own. 

The fight truly showcased how Jones was better in single aspect of the game except boxing. Cormier is an impressive fighter, but short of vastly improved clinch work, better footwork and more agility, I don’t expect to Cormier to win.

Jones is incredibly adaptive and is durable enough to make adjustments within fights. However, if unimpeded he is more than happy to just throw the same punch over and over.                                                                                  1.25x

Cormier, who reportedly watched the fight a dozen times, might know Jones’ tactics better than anyone, but Jones’ arsenal is a constantly deepening well of answers to whatever Cormier might have to offer. 

Cormier’s game has improved, but he needs to find out how to close the distance yet avoiding prolonged clinch exchanges with Jones. 

Prediction: 

Jon Jones by unanimous decision 48-47

Please feel free to comment, suggest, or make requests!

How Nate Diaz Beat the King

After battering Nate Diaz for a large portion of the fight, McGregor tires and starts to get caught repeatedly. McGregor is on shaky legs and shoots out of desperation and gets submitted by Rear-Naked choke in the second round.  

Up until the last few minutes of the fight, McGregor had great success landing countless hard shots and was winning convincingly. What happened? How did Diaz start landing his shots? 

In order to breakdown the fight, lets examine their styles.

Conor McGregor is an aggressive counter-puncher.

He gained massive popularity through his nasty knockouts. 17/19 wins are from KO/TKO, and all 3 loses were by submission.

Here’s his 13 second knockout over the undefeated featherweight champion, Jose Aldo.

McGregor’s aggression is applied through feints and taunts. His open guard bait his opponents to attack. Pay close attention to how his hands are raised and his head is seemingly open for attack. 

McGregor’s speed and deadly accuracy allows him to slip and counter Diaz’s attacks but can’t seem to put him away.

Nate Diaz is an out–fighter.

Diaz likes to keep his range and work from the outside. His pivots and footwork allow him to maintain this range. As a Brazilian Jujitsu black belt, he is not lost when opponents close the gap.

Diaz is also infamous for his durability. Here’s Josh Thompson kicking his face.

McGregor has often looked his best when he is able to limit his opponents movements by cornering them, but Diaz is excellent at never moving straight back and turning his back away from the cage.

Diaz tried utilizing his  1,2 (jab, cross) combo that he famously landed on Donald Cerrone. However in this fight, Diaz was constantly getting countered off the right-jab and caught moving forward while throwing his left-cross. 

Diaz begins to aim in anticipation that McGregor’s head will move and beings to land very consistently. In addition, McGregor becomes an increasingly easy target as he slows down. The tide turned when Diaz ultimately landed a hard 1,2 that rocked McGregor.

Slipping and countering simultaneously allows for quick and hard shots, but creates problems when the “slip” doesn’t happen. McGregor fails to slip the jab and gets caught with the cross a split second after, where before he was slipping the jab and naturally the cross would miss.

By finally seeing the “Notorious” Conor McGregor tired, we realize how much he relies on his speed for both his defense (slip) and offense (counter).

Aggressive fighters like Gennady Golovkin and Conor McGregor shut down their opponents lead hand by capitalizing on the openings it creates. They cannot push forward and open up their striking if their opponent is able to stick them with their jab and constantly move away.

Diaz as an out-fighter utilizes his jab and lead hook an insane amount and it sets up his cross. The jab had to be established and than the cross started landing over and over.

Diaz lands his 1,2 for the last time as the damaged and exhausted McGregor ducks under for a desperate take down on a Brazilian Jujitsu master..

… and gets choked out.