The Backdrop
With UFC’s Middleweight division left in ashes after Silva’s long and devastating reign, Chris Weidman, an undefeated fighter and former All-American wrestler, was the last hope of a competitive Middleweight division.
Sure enough at UFC 162, Weidman shocked the world and knocked out the most elusive and pound-for-pound best fighter in the world, Anderson Silva, in just the second round.
Despite being a new face with a shot title reign, Chris Weidman began gaining respect after defeating Silva again and all-time great fighters like Lyoto Machida, but as usual there was a dark knight on the rise to the top.
Luke Rockhold was a recent addition to the UFC family and a dominant fighter in Strikeforce. His quick UFC debut loss had nobody clamoring for his shot at the title, and he was quickly forgotten as TRT Vitor became the next best title fight to make.
The early setback began to look like a fluke as TRT was banned and the hulk-like Vitor that smashed Rockhold disappeared with it. Fast forward 2 years and Rockhold had finished four opponents while Weidman easily retained his title against Vitor.
The Fight
The stage couldn’t have been bigger for Weidman vs Rockhold as the co-main event to Aldo vs Conor McGregor. The fight was unsurprisingly competitive, until Weidman shocked the world with the absolute worst spinning back kick ever.
Rockhold beautifully mounts the champ.Look carefully how Rockhold cradles the back of Weidman’s head to prevent him from being able to use it as an anchor to escape.
Rockhold than smashes Weidman thoroughly and completely for an entire minute as fans all around the world desperately cry for the referee to stop the fight.
Talk about heart and determination. The guy never gave up and still went out in the 4th round trying to win. Ultimately, the battered All-American wrestler gets taken down again, out-grappled again, and beat again.
The Rematch
The kick was the turning point of the fight, but surely Weidman won’t be making that mistake again.
How does the rematch play out and what does this fight look like without that kick?
What can we take away from the rest of the fight?
First of all, Rockhold’s ground game was far superior and ultimately won him the fight. He has truly amazing take-down defense, and shockingly good BJJ.
Although securing a take-down, Weidman is unable to put together any offense. Rockhold is incredibly diligent about getting neck control.
After an entire minute passes as Weidman is unable to do anything due to Rockhold’s hold.
After getting stood up, Weidman immediately attempts a take-down from a caught kick but Rockhold grabs neck control again, sweeps and gains top control.
Weidman appeared to have no answers for Rockhold’s front headlock series and had to contend with him on the feet.
A common standup tactic that both fighers used often was shifting, in order to effectively chase down their opponent while delivering power. Note that the rear leg comes forward with the punch so that they end up in a different stance. Rockhold: southpaw to orthodox. Weidman: orthodox to southpaw
There are many options to counter this aggressive move. Rockhold’s reaction to any forward pressure is to either retreat or throw his coveted check hook. He lands this specific check hook an INSANE amount throughout his entire career, and is almost exclusively the only punch he throws when getting pressured.
Here is Weidman shifting to southpaw and Rockhold answering with a check hook.
Rockhold throws that check hook every single time Weidman pushes forward.
Note that his hook is designed to catch people coming in and often lands on the back of the opponents’ heads ( an incredibly dangerous area).
Recognizing the threat, Weidman begins to slip the check hook, but he still struggles to land effective punch counters.
Struggling to find Rockhold’s chin, Weidman intelligently feints with his hands to either kick Rockhold as he retreats or as he throws the check hook. In the clip from round 2, you can actually see Weidman intently watching the lead hand of Rockhold in anticipation of the check hook.
Overall, Rockhold landed his check hook ALOT and rarely got hit clean while ducking down to throw. It seems a little ridiculous that nobody has been able to exploit Rockhold’s predictability when getting pressured.
In theory, Weidman should be able to duck under the hook and land his own hook to the body or an overhand right. He could even bait the punch by feinting with his hands and go high with a kick due to Rockhold’s crouched over leaned back stance when throwing this punch. He could also feint the jab, bait the punch, than quickly return with a right cross.
In midst of finishing this breakdown, I found a fantastic post by a fellow blogger regarding Rockhold’s check hook and it’s many possibly counters. I couldn’t possibly do as good of a job so check out my fellow fight blogger!
https://strikingthoughtssite.wordpress.com/2016/03/22/luke-rockholds-signature-habits/
As previously noted, Rockhold also loves shifting but found much more success than Weidman. Unlike Rockhold’s singular check hook or retreat tactic, Weidman reacts to the shifting attack in a variety of ways, such as stepping back, slipping, throwing his own check hook, and a combination of all three sometimes.
Weidman steps back and slips when necessary.
Weidman slips and grabs double under-hooks , but Rockhold does a great job of redirecting and staying on his feet.
Weidman slips, steps back, and lands a hook as Rockhold comes forward.
Rockhold throws a left cross shifting to orthodox, throws a quick jab, than lands a massive right cross shifting back to southpaw. Weidman tries to check Rockhold with a hook but misses with his chin exposed.
After a brutal third round, Weidman eats the same exact combination but softly lands his hook this time.
Weidman had very little success in countering Rockhold’s attack and was far better off when retreating rather than trying to check hook. He was vulnerable to this because he backed up in a straight line and didn’t move his head with his counter.
Both fighters displayed phenomenal and hard kicks, but Rockhold’s kicks were cleaner and landed with much more frequency. A problem that I noticed was Weidman’s inferior flexibility in his high kicks, which results in a slower, less effective, and telegraphed kick.
What to expect for Weidman vs Rockhold II?
Despite winning the first round, Weidman looked out-matched everywhere for the rest of the fight. He didn’t win the first in any impressive fashion and both fighters hardly inflicted much damage.
The most obvious and clear adjustments as a relentless pressure fighter would be his offense. He was largely ineffective in pushing Rockhold due to the check hook. Weidman REALLY needs to utilize one or a few of the many possible answers already established in boxing, kickboxing and muay thai. Defensively, Weidman needs to stick to the basics and stay diligent about moving back on angles to avoid the large and dangerous advancements.
Rather than occasionally backing straight up, Rockhold commits this out-spoken foul every time, but due to his reach and speed, he rarely gets hit with anything. It’s hard to fix what’s not broken but there are criticisms to be made about his predictable defense.
Backing straight up leaves him vulnerable to leg kicks as he exits striking range and his dipping check hook is what caused his devastating loss to Vitor. For comfort, I reposted it below and look very closely at Rockhold’s right hand. He slightly dips down and back and looks to throw his check hook.
Nobody can afford to be singular in this game for long even if their simplicity is reliable and effective. Knowing what your opponents is going to do allows you to think five moves ahead. I have no idea if Weidman or his camp have worked on these aspects, but it is Rockhold’s single best weapon yet his greatest exploitable flaw.
A prediction is hard to make without knowing what adjustments Weidman will make and if Rockhold will have answers to them during the fight. Unlike most I wouldn’t be shocked to see Weidman win three rounds and take a decision, but with such a disparity on the ground and Weidman’s proclivity to fade in championship rounds, I still favor Rockhold by a good margin.
Predicion:
Rockhold by submission in the 4th or 5th round.
Like always feel free to comment!
FightBreakdowns 