The backdrop, the fight, and the rematch. What to expect for Weidman vs Rockhold II

The Backdrop

With UFC’s Middleweight division left in ashes after Silva’s long and devastating reign, Chris Weidman, an undefeated fighter and former All-American wrestler, was the last hope of a competitive Middleweight division.

Sure enough at UFC 162, Weidman shocked the world and knocked out the most elusive and pound-for-pound best fighter in the world, Anderson Silva, in just the second round.

Despite being a new face with a shot title reign, Chris Weidman began gaining respect after defeating Silva again and all-time great fighters like Lyoto Machida, but as usual there was a dark knight on the rise to the top.

Luke Rockhold was a recent addition to the UFC family and a dominant fighter in Strikeforce. His quick UFC debut loss had nobody clamoring for his shot at the title, and he was quickly forgotten as TRT Vitor became the next best title fight to make.

The early setback began to look like a fluke as TRT was banned and the hulk-like Vitor that smashed Rockhold disappeared with it. Fast forward 2 years and Rockhold had finished four opponents while Weidman easily retained his title against Vitor.

The Fight

The stage couldn’t have been bigger for Weidman vs Rockhold as the co-main event to Aldo vs Conor McGregor. The fight was unsurprisingly competitive, until Weidman shocked the world with the absolute worst spinning back kick ever.

Rockhold beautifully mounts the champ.Look carefully how Rockhold cradles the back of Weidman’s head to prevent him from being able to use it as an anchor to escape. 

Rockhold than smashes Weidman thoroughly and completely for an entire minute as fans all around the world desperately cry for the referee to stop the fight.

Talk about heart and determination. The guy never gave up and still went out in the 4th round trying to win. Ultimately, the battered All-American wrestler gets taken down again, out-grappled again, and beat again.

The Rematch

The kick was the turning point of the fight, but surely Weidman won’t be making that mistake again.

How does the rematch play out and what does this fight look like without that kick?

What can we take away from the rest of the fight?

First of all, Rockhold’s ground game was far superior and ultimately won him the fight. He has truly amazing take-down defense, and shockingly good BJJ.

Although securing a take-down, Weidman is unable to put together any offense. Rockhold is incredibly diligent about getting neck control.

After an entire minute passes as Weidman is unable to do anything due to Rockhold’s hold.

After getting stood up, Weidman immediately attempts a take-down from a caught kick  but Rockhold grabs neck control again, sweeps and gains top control.

Weidman appeared to have no answers for Rockhold’s front headlock series and had to contend with him on the feet.

A common standup tactic that both fighers used often was shifting, in order to effectively chase down their opponent while delivering power. Note that the rear  leg comes forward with the punch so that they end up in a different stance. Rockhold: southpaw to orthodox. Weidman: orthodox to southpaw

There are many options to counter this aggressive move. Rockhold’s reaction to any forward pressure is to either retreat or throw his coveted check hook. He lands this specific check hook an INSANE amount throughout his entire career, and is almost exclusively the only punch he throws when getting pressured.

Here is Weidman shifting to southpaw and Rockhold answering with a check hook.

Rockhold throws that check hook every single time Weidman pushes forward.

 

Note that his hook is designed to catch people coming in and often lands on the back of the opponents’ heads ( an incredibly dangerous area).

Recognizing the threat, Weidman begins to slip the check hook, but he still struggles to land effective punch counters.

Struggling to find Rockhold’s chin, Weidman intelligently feints with his hands to either kick Rockhold as he retreats or as he throws the check hook. In the clip from round 2, you can actually see Weidman intently watching the lead hand of Rockhold in anticipation of the check hook. 

Overall, Rockhold landed his check hook ALOT and rarely got hit clean while ducking down to throw. It seems a little ridiculous that nobody has been able to exploit Rockhold’s predictability when getting pressured.

In theory, Weidman should be able to duck under the hook and land his own hook to the body or an overhand right. He could even bait the punch by feinting with his hands and go high with a kick due to Rockhold’s crouched over leaned back stance when throwing this punch. He could also feint the jab, bait the punch, than quickly return with a right cross.

In midst of finishing this breakdown, I found a fantastic post by a fellow blogger regarding Rockhold’s check hook and it’s many possibly counters. I couldn’t possibly do as good of a job so check out my fellow fight blogger!

https://strikingthoughtssite.wordpress.com/2016/03/22/luke-rockholds-signature-habits/

As previously noted, Rockhold also loves shifting but found much more success than Weidman. Unlike Rockhold’s singular check hook or retreat tactic, Weidman reacts to the shifting attack in a variety of ways, such as stepping back, slipping, throwing his own check hook, and a combination of all three sometimes.

Weidman steps back and slips when necessary.

Weidman slips and grabs double under-hooks , but Rockhold does a great job of redirecting and staying on his feet.

Weidman slips, steps back, and lands a hook as Rockhold comes forward.

Rockhold throws a left cross shifting to orthodox, throws a quick jab, than lands a massive right cross shifting back to southpaw. Weidman tries to check Rockhold with a hook but misses with his chin exposed.

After a brutal third round, Weidman eats the same exact combination but softly lands his hook this time.

 

Weidman had very little success in countering Rockhold’s attack and was far better off when retreating rather than trying to check hook. He was vulnerable to this because he backed up in a straight line and didn’t move his head with his counter.

Both fighters displayed phenomenal and hard kicks, but Rockhold’s kicks were cleaner and landed with much more frequency. A problem that I noticed was Weidman’s inferior flexibility in his high kicks, which results in a slower, less effective, and telegraphed kick.

What to expect for Weidman vs Rockhold II?

Despite winning the first round, Weidman looked out-matched everywhere for the rest of the fight. He didn’t win the first in any impressive fashion and both fighters hardly inflicted much damage.

The most obvious and clear adjustments as a relentless pressure fighter would be his offense. He was largely ineffective in pushing Rockhold due to the check hook. Weidman REALLY needs to utilize one or a few of the many possible answers already established in boxing, kickboxing and muay thai. Defensively, Weidman needs to stick to the basics and stay diligent about moving back on angles to avoid the large and dangerous advancements.

Rather than occasionally backing straight up, Rockhold commits this out-spoken foul every time, but due to his reach and speed, he rarely gets hit with anything. It’s hard to fix what’s not broken but there are criticisms to be made about his predictable defense.

Backing straight up leaves him vulnerable to leg kicks as he exits striking range and his dipping check hook is what caused his devastating loss to Vitor. For comfort, I reposted it below and look very closely at Rockhold’s right hand. He slightly dips down and back and looks to throw his check hook. 

Nobody can afford to be singular in this game for long even if their simplicity is reliable and effective. Knowing what your opponents is going to do allows you to think five moves ahead. I have no idea if Weidman or his camp have worked on these aspects, but it is Rockhold’s single best weapon yet his greatest exploitable flaw. 

A prediction is hard to make without knowing what adjustments Weidman will make and if Rockhold will have answers to them during the fight. Unlike most I wouldn’t be shocked to see Weidman win three rounds and take a decision, but with such a disparity on the ground and Weidman’s proclivity to fade in championship rounds, I still favor Rockhold by a good margin. 

Predicion:

Rockhold by submission in the 4th or 5th round.

 

Like always feel free to comment!

 

 

 

 

Closing the gap between Jones and Cormier

Daniel Cormier burst onto the scene in the Heavyweight division by defeating all-time greats like Roy Nelson, Frank Mir and Antonio Silva. His fellow AKA (American Kickboxing Academy) teammate, Cain Velasquez, held the UFC’s Heavyweight title, and there began the quest for Light Heavyweight gold.

Cormier’s run to the title bout was quick, and as a former Olympic wrestler, he posed some interesting challenges to the Champion, Jon Jones.

The big question leading up to UFC 182 was whether or not Daniel Cormier can close the distance and employ his game plan. After a handful of vicious elbows and knees during the first few rounds, the question promptly changed to whether or not Cormier should close the gap.

As the fight continued, “Break Bones” fans started to wilt. Cormier was getting dominated in his strongest areas, such as wrestling and in-fighting. With feud fueling the buzz, many haven’t stopped to think about what really went wrong the first time.

Lets analyze their past fight to see how their style clashed.

Stylistically Jon Jones is an out-fighter.

He is most comfortable at range where he can utilize his whopping 12 inch reach advantage over Cormier.

As an out-fighter, Jones prefers a large gap between him and Cormier. From that range, he targets up and down the body in an unpredictable manner with kicks. His side kicks and infamous oblique kicks stunt his opponent’s forward movement, maintain his preferred striking distance and of course, do some serious damage.

Out-fighting is not as simple as always maintaining a gap but necessitates closing the distance on your terms. Jones’ mindset is that, in order to be safe you have to be all the way in or all the way out. The greatness of Jones is how he masterfully he can set the distance to being on the outside or in the clinch, and how great he is on the outside and in the clinch.

Here you see, Jones stop his frequent circling to throw and breach the gap. He than closes his guard and initiates a clinch if his opponent is still coming forward.

These specific exchanges sum up his series of attack depending on range. High kick (far). Oblique kick (DC coming closer). Straight left (DC close)

Once too close, Jones clinches and ties up Cormier’s hands to avoid getting hit..

From the clinch Jones is great at landing hard elbows

Jones dictated the range almost every second of the fight. Jones can masterfully escape by closing the gap, turning the corner and than reestablishing the gap. 

What options are left for Cormier?

Well how did Cain Velasquez, Cormier’s stylistically identical teammate and former UFC Heavyweight Champion, dismantle the savvy striker, Junior dos Santos?

Great Head Movement = Allows for defense while being the aggressor

Good Counters = Allows for offense when out-fighter decides to engage.

Unrelenting Pressure = Forces out-fighter to box or constantly circle away.

Similar to lifting something with a pulley, releasing pressure on Jones will immediately undo Cormier’s hard work. Every second that Cormier isn’t actively taking an angle, feinting or striking, he is losing ground both literally and figuratively.

Cormier will have to get inside his boxing distance and really push the pace,

and punish Jones when he closes the distance and tries to clinch for safety. 

Cormier cannot allow Jones to dictate when and where the two will exchange. He must fight Jones’ lead hand or go around it. Jones uses his lead hand to measure and sometimes illegally deter opponents from attacking.

This slip/counter by Cormier is exactly what he’ll need in the rematch, but sadly was a rare occurrence in their first fight. The slip to the side allows Cormier to push forward while defending and return a punch of his own. 

The fight truly showcased how Jones was better in single aspect of the game except boxing. Cormier is an impressive fighter, but short of vastly improved clinch work, better footwork and more agility, I don’t expect to Cormier to win.

Jones is incredibly adaptive and is durable enough to make adjustments within fights. However, if unimpeded he is more than happy to just throw the same punch over and over.                                                                                  1.25x

Cormier, who reportedly watched the fight a dozen times, might know Jones’ tactics better than anyone, but Jones’ arsenal is a constantly deepening well of answers to whatever Cormier might have to offer. 

Cormier’s game has improved, but he needs to find out how to close the distance yet avoiding prolonged clinch exchanges with Jones. 

Prediction: 

Jon Jones by unanimous decision 48-47

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